Mon, 6 July 2020
Today, David Waldman and Greg Dworkin bring us complex answers to complex questions. That is, after all why we tune in to them for a couple of hours. (Actually, 1:58:45.)
Donald Trump is pretty simple. He’s a racist, he’s going to appeal to racists. You would think that there would not be enough racists to make that work. You would hope so. Fear and resentment has been a solid strategy for Trump, but probably not this time... Probably not. That is partly because coronavirus is skyrocketing right where Trump’s supporters live, which is no coincidence. The pandemic is hitting Donald right in his big beautiful electoral map. COVID-19 has chased the Republicans from Charlotte to Jacksonville to rout them out again.
We don’t have all of the dumb people in the world, it just seems that way. Understanding why COVID cases increase as deaths are decrease is as simple as understanding Simpson’s Paradox, regression to the mean, and conversely, regression to the tail. It also helps to understand the difference between equality and equity in contact tracing protocols. Listen, just follow the expert advice, whenever you can find some.